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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-05-14T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-05-14T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16904/-1
CME Note: The start time of this CME may be off (earlier) due to a data gap in STEREO-A data. The source of this CME is a B4.9 class flare from Active Region 12823 starting at 2021-05-14T00:37Z, peaking at 2021-05-14T01:04Z, ending at 2021-05-14T01:31Z. The eruption is most clearly visible in SDO/AIA wavelengths 193, 171, and 94. The eruption appears as a brightening from the flare in the center of the active region with dimming occurring to the south of the active region. There is a coronal hole just south of this active region that could have deflected the CME more equatorward. The CME is best seen to the West in STEREO-A COR2 imagery. There are no visible CME features in SOHO/LASCO C2/C3 imagery. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is associated with a shock observed at L1 at 2021-05-19T01:16Z. From Lan Jian, "There seems to be a shock in early 2021-05-19, which could be related to a glimpse of the simulated CME."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-05-19T01:16Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-05-17T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2021-05-14T12:57Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 444
Longitude (deg): S03
Latitude (deg): W000
Half-angular width (deg): 15

Notes: Low confidence, not visible on Lasco, assumes emission radially from meridian. Analysis follows front on STEREO A COR2. Interacts with high speed stream from CH57/- and also earlier CME directed above the ecliptic (from near 2822).
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 93.68 hour(s)
Difference: 37.27 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-05-15T03:35Z

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